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Historians generally disparage ‘what if’ narratives – but it makes fun reading and, more importantly, challenges accepted wisdom.

Several of my journal updates in recent months have referenced the slow recovery of the UK economy, pointing out that real output was hovering around the 2019 level. This has now proved to be inaccurate.

One of the great skills of the best forecasters is to explain the past and make market moves sound perfectly logical and predictable. I say this tongue in cheek because I have been mulling the causes of the recent rise in US treasury yields. Last week, I read a flurry of notes explaining why global bond yields have gone up.

Booming Britain? Well not quite, but a pleasant surprise nonetheless. UK GDP expanded 0.5% in the month of June, well above consensus expectations. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) attributed the expansion to a recovery in activity following May's extra bank holiday.

For people who know us well, the observation that ‘credit ratings don’t tell you everything’ will come as no surprise. We certainly value the input provided by rating agencies but there is something missing.

The Royal London Asset Management Sustainable investing roadshow, will run from 30 August to 4 October 2023.

There is a small gallery on the Wirral that houses one of my favourite pictures. Painted in the mid 19th century by William Holman Hunt, a leading Pre-Raphaelite artist, it depicts ‘The Scapegoat’, an animal that carries away human sins.

Last week saw three UK by-elections in constituencies previously held by the Conservatives. Two seats were won by opposition parties, following large swings; the other was retained, against most predictions. What can be read into these results?